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In this solar analysis page I have tried to include files and associated videos dealing with solar resource and solar financial analysis as well as battery analysis. I have included some files that deal with solar power resource analysis as well as solar power financial issues. The solar resource analysis explains computation of P90, P75 etc. through downloading historic time series data. In the first lesson set you can work thorough computing P90, P99 etc. from historic solar irradiation data which is difficult to find. In addition, a database of actual solar projects is explained. The first lesson set guides you through hourly data on irradiation and then project the yield (or capacity factor) as well as distributions and probabilities. Subsequent lesson sets involve creating an analysing financial models. One deals with making a single project and another on making a portfolio of projects in a rooftop analysis. To introduce issues associated with solar analysis, the file below is a database that collects information on the cost of solar panels over time.


Lesson Set 1: Solar Resource Analysis


The first lesson set walks through construction of a solar project finance model including analysis of the solar resource, meaning the amount of solar energy that is available at different places in the globe. The capacity of a panel is defined by something called kWp or MWp where the p represents peak and the measured instantaneous capacity is measured at a term called Standard Testing Conditions or STC. Standard testing conditions are how much power would be produced by a panel if there was solar energy touching the panel of 1,000 W/meter squared (measured with a flash test) and the temprature is 25 degrees Celsius. If the average amount of energy over the year is 150 W/meter squared and the temperature is always 25 degrees and there are no losses from wiring, snow, shading, dust etc., then the capacity factor would be 15% and the yield would be 150 x 8760/1,000 or 1,314 kWh/kW. If there were no clouds or dust and the sun did not have sun spots, then the amount of solar power (extra terrestrial that sounds like science fiction) could be computed direct from longitude and latitude. But clouds and other things complicate the calculation. These conditions can be measured with satellites that are going around the globe and measuring all sorts of atmospheric conditions. Because of all of this, you can click on a google map type picture and then get the amount of solar power per kW per meter squared in different places.

The discussion below shows how to take various sources of solar power and then adjust them by the performance ratio (temprature, losses etc.) and then compute the solar yield in a crude but reasonable manner. Once the solar power is computed I also demonstrate how to compute things like P90, P95 etc. if you have historic data. (Now let me complain. I would so much rather have a set of historic data than clicking on some kind of cool google map type thing if I am evaluating the risks of solar resources). I have also shown some data on historic solar data that is a good place to start. This was provided by NREL but they decided to stop providing the data. Some websites where you can find solar resource data include Retscreen, JRC, PVWATT and NREL. Links include:

http://pvwatts.nrel.gov/pvwatts.php
http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/apps4/pvest.php?map=africa
Zipped files: http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/1991-2010/NCDCStationData/
Individual Files: http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/1991-2010/hourly/list_by_state.html
http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/1991-2010/NCDCStationData/

If you work through the videos and files in the worksheet, you should be above to find the yield or capacity factor for your project and understand the performance ratio. If you want to receive credit for working through the solar analysis, you should be able to (1) find a base yield from looking at the websites; (2) review long-term hourly solar data and compute the P90 and P99 that arises from variation in solar irradiation from year to year (due to clouds and dust); (3) add uncertainty related to the performance ratio and use the mean squared error to develop final P90, P99 etc.; and, (4) examine historic data for actual projects and understand the difference between actual observed variation and variation that is possible before the project begins. A separate spreadsheet is provided if you want to evaluate your skills.



Files associated with Lesson Set 1: Solar Resource Analysis


The first step in the lesson set is evaluating solar resource. The files first set of files involve putting solar data together in a file. The basis for computing P99 etc is the NREL website and download the zipped file for a location (sorry that this is only U.S. data). The first set are files work with detailed raw data from NREL that has hourly data from 1991-2010. If you try this, go to a file and then run the MOVE macro and put each of the in a file. You can do this by opening the template file below and pressing SHIFT, CNTL, X. In addition to files that work through the solar data I have included a database of actual solar projects that is called the solar database. This database allows you to evaluate P90, P99 etc. on the basis of actual data.







Lesson Set 2: Standard Solar Project Finance Model for Grid Mounted Systems



Files associated with Lesson Set 2: Solar Project Finance Model




The second lesson set involves a step-by-step project finance analysis of a solar project. Building a solar project finance model is not very different than some of the other lesson sets that are described in the page name "Project Finance Exercises". The lesson set therefore focuses on incorporating solar resource analysis into a project finance model.






Lesson Set 3: Levelised Cost of Electricity and Currency Analysis in Solar Project Finance





Lesson 5: A-Z Rooftop Solar Model and Building Portfolios



This lesson set walks you through a rooftop analysis beginning with establishing a portfolio from multiple installations to evaluating financing and the ability of the project to repay debt. Parts of the model and lesson are pretty standard but there are quite a few tricky issues. If you make it all the way through all of the lessons you may learn something about both modelling and finance. As different solar facilities on rooftops are assumed to be constructed at different times, the model involves evaluation of how to compute cash flow and production items when rates change over the lifetime of a project such as degradation. This set of videos and files also introduce you various other tricky modelling issues including using sumproduct for S-curves with asset portfolios, inflating in alternative periods, accounts receivable and bad debt when outstanding accounts receivable are longer than a month, allocation to interest during construction and difficult financing issues in a monthly analysis where cash flows can be positive or negative. Video links associated with the lessons are shown below. The second section includes the file with different sheets that should be used together with the videos. If you really fill out each sheet and want your name on my website so that you can tell your boss or future employer that you have completed the lesson, I will do this for a modest fee.


Videos associated with Lesson Set 5: Rooftop Solar Model



Subject

Sheet Name in Course File

Video Links









Rooftop Model Overview -- Introduction to Course File, Videos and Exercises

Overview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEt_WlEh0e4


Rooftop Model Inputs -- Structure and Organisation

Assumptions

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnCJwDBW0sM


Setting-up Portfolio Equations in Rooftop Model

Portfolio Set-up Exercise

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgUuXpevw5E

Computing Capacity and Generation for Solar Facilities

Production Exercise

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WD-z71Bqtls


Degradation Part 1 - Vintage Array

Degradation Example

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYuDK6GCps0

Degradation Part 2 - User Defined Array Function

Array Functions

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KszpkgFpeX8


Degradation Part 3 - Application of Function in Model

Degradation Calculation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKI2psTxZZI


Calculation of Capital Expenditures and SUMPRODUCT Trick

Capital Expenditures

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIn7nzHnTe0


Revenues, Periodic Inflation, Accrued Bad Debts

Revenue Calculation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKJdRR4AFbg


Working Capital in Monthly Model with Forward Calculations and OFFSET

Accounts Receivable

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47TzvXmLYjE


Operating and Maintenance with Function to Compute by Age

Operating and Maintenance

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crUa-TN1LKw


Compute Cash Flow, Depreciation and IRR and Operating Taxes

Pre-tax and After Tax Cash Flow

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dw_BpWmP0MQ

Overview of Financing

Financing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7Y0c6McupQ

Financing 1: Cash Flow and Balance Sheet

Financing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSjUqIDYShw


Financing 2: IDC and Fees with Financial Statements

Financing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRHFRpFfqWY

IDC Accounting and Cash Balance Issues

Financing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpMs_wVknWY

Scenario Analysis

Scenario Exercise

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pu-idlY-5lc


File associated with Lesson Set 4: Rooftop Solar Model



The file below walks through a solar rooftop model where the major issues involve creating a portfolio with different characteristics including start dates, end dates degradation profiles and operating expenses. It includes detail methods for computing working and financing. There is a set of 15 videos that constitutes a course associated with both basic and advanced issues associated with the rooftop model. Exercises associated with the rooftop model that you can complete are included in a single comprehensive file which is the first file named "rooftop solar course file" listed below. The file includes many pages that work through the steps of completing a model. The completed exercise discussed in the video is on one sheet named the monthly consolidated model. The exercise is shown on a later sheet (with a yellow tab). Key take away points are shown at the top of exercise page that you can work through. If you make an effort to fill in the entire model you should be proud of yourself and I will send you an official badge. I have included the generic macros that has SHIFT,CNTL,R and SHIFT,CNTL,C which are used a lot in the videos.










Videos associated with Lesson Set 1: Resource Analysis and Financing of Solar




Subject

Excel File

Video Link

Chapter Reference

Page Reference













Finding Solar Irriatiation Data

Solar Resource Analysis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IExGu1mk5c0






Working with Hourly Data

NREL Template

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqQdQhVl_eY






Computing P90, P75, P50 etc. from Irriadiation

P90, P95, etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ssln5sRz64






Computing Capacity Factors from Irridiation

Net Yield Analysis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PguZQz-RtDw






Incorporating Performance Ratio Uncertaintity

P90, P95, etc. Multiple Factors

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7RzDbHkM-k






Timing in Solar Project Finance Model

Timing in Solar Model

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQYUuKQ0k94






Yield, Degradation and Capacity in Solar Model

Yield and Capacity in Solar Model

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUP1v2Od59E






Operating Analysis in Solar Model

Operations Analysis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGgfKaSJHBA






Working Capital In Solar Model

Solar Working Capital

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r85rhfB9NRQ






Financial Related Inputs and Financial Model Structure

Solar Financing Inputs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--iThEBTMSo






Financing Equations

Solar Financing Equations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfOUjWw-p6c






Cash Flow Equations

Solar Cash Flow Equations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkLfOW_vwH0






Presentation of Annual Data and Debt Cash Flow










DSRA in Solar Model










Preparing Balance Sheet and Audit Checks










Resolving Circular References in Solar Model










Creating Tornado Diagrams in Solar Model










Adding Inflation to a Project Finance Model










Including Depreciation on New Expenditures










Using Models to Create Templates










Working Capital in Project Finance










Scenario Analysis










Tornado Analysis










Tax Equity and Flip Structures

Tax Structuring Model








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